Shit is about to get real for Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies. The world champion Springboks have rolled into town for a two-Test showdown starting this weekend in Brisbane and concluding next Saturday in Perth. Australia will start as underdogs but a brew of hometown advantage and some radical new rules could turn this match on its head.
The opening Test on Saturday is the first sell-out for a Wallabies match at Suncorp Stadium since 2013. That year was the last time South Africa won at the venue, with Australia taking out all four meetings in Brisbane since then, the most recent a 30-17 victory for a 2-0 series sweep in 2021. The Wallabies retained the Nelson Mandela Challenge Plate the following year, but lost it in a 43-12 drubbing last July.
For 52,000 fans to stump up for tickets in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis is another sign that Australian rugby is slowly getting back on track. Although both the men’s and women’s Olympic Sevens campaigns ended with fourth-place finishes, the debt-ridden code is edging into “the golden era” of the 2025 British & Irish Lions tour and home Rugby World Cups in 2027 and 2029.
The Wallabies are on the up. They have won four straight, the longest winning streak of any nation in the IRB top 10, and are unbeaten under new coach Joe Schmidt, with a 3-0 record this season. A winning start to 2024 was essential after the Eddie Jones-engineered mess of 2023 and Schmidt has delivered, defeating Wales and Georgia to instil vital confidence.
But those wins came against teams ranked No 11 and No 12 in the world. South Africa are No 1, back-to-back World Cup winners and battle-hardened after a drawn series with world No 2 Ireland. Both those Tests in July went down to the wire, the Springboks winning the first 27-20 with a penalty try in the 78th minute, and Ireland’s drop goal on the siren stealing the second 25-24.
On paper, Rassie Erasmus’s South Africa should trample the No 9-ranked Australia twice over. However, there’s cautious optimism creeping out of the home camp ahead of this 94th clash between the nations. Suncorp Stadium is the Wallabies’ fortress, a cauldron where the crowd sit close to the field, creating their own pressure. A 2.30pm AEST kick-off will fire up the Gold Army too.
Schmidt says he’s mixed “continuity with freshness” in his match day 23. Noah Lolesio has been recalled for his 21st Test at flyhalf following Ben Donaldson’s poor showing against Georgia, and will partner Jack Gordon at No 9 with Queensland duo Tom Lynagh and Tate McDermott to finish in front of their home fans.
There was one major twist. Schmidt called 59-cap Marika Koroibete into the squad from Japan. But despite South Africans still shuddering at the burly winger’s missile hit on Makazole Mapimpi in Australia’s 25-17 Adelaide ambush in 2022, Schmidt hasn’t picked him, instead showing faith in his back three of Tom Wright, Filipo Daugunu and Andrew Kellaway.
The other architect of that Adelaide win, with two tries, was Fraser McReight. But the in-form flanker’s broken thumb gives West Australian junior Carlo Tizzano his debut. And with tyro Taniela Tupou excused following his father’s death, Allan Alaalatoa will captain from tighthead with Isaac Kailea and hooker Matt Faessler doing the monster mash in the front row.
The Springboks are a big, powerful side but speed could be the deciding factor on Saturday. World Rugby is using this Test to trial a faster game they hope will prove more telegenic. Shot clocks will police 30-second scrums and lineouts and 60 second conversions, not 90. The changes mean more ball in play, less malingering, and deeper fatigue (except for fans).
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Schmidt poked the bear this week by wondering aloud if the new laws might diffuse South Africa’s heavy artillery “bomb squad” – the big boppers Erasmus routinely deploys in the second half of games to grind out wins with first-phase attack from set-piece and stoppages. Maybe, but the issue for Schmidt is these Springboks have weapons up front and out wide.
South Africa have traditionally hung their game on fierce physicality and stonewall defence. Under new attack coach Tony Brown, a former All Blacks flyhalf, they attack from everywhere. Even with a new 9-10 in half Cobus Reinach and flash fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Australia’s back three will be targeted by an aerial assault while tanks thunder up the middle.
Stopping this juggernaut will take courage and calm. Schmidt has improved Australia’s skills, with faster passing and stronger set-pieces enabling them to average 33 points per game this season. But their discipline is still poor. With 20-minute red cards also being trialled on Saturday, cool heads must prevail if the Wallabies are to shock the world champions.