To Sam, the idea of voting for an independent rather than her local Labor MP Tony Burke is a novel one.
“I usually vote Labor, but these days I don’t know,” says the Belmore-based teacher. “The government stays away from these areas. They just do the bare minimum and leave.”
Sam, who asked not to use her surname, says the war in Gaza is front of mind for many in Sydney’s south-west.
“People are really angry about the war and how it has been handled,” she explains while waiting for a pizza.
“Especially at the fact that they can’t do anything from here, and that the government isn’t doing anything about it.
“I think if someone who represents the different ethnic communities here was to emerge, someone who loves the area and wants to make a difference, and people saw a difference, maybe that would change people’s minds.”
A revolution in Watson?
The electorate of Watson is part of a belt of safe Labor seats in western Sydney – many with large migrant communities – which have long been integral to Labor’s electoral success.
But anger over what many see as an inadequate response by the Albanese government to the war in Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 40,000 people since the 7 October attacks by Hamas, has galvanised the push for alternative candidates to challenge Labor.
Last week, the Lakemba-based GP Ziad Basyouny emerged as the first local independent in this expected wave, declaring his intention to challenge Burke in Watson. The challenge is considerable – Burke won the seat at the 2022 election with a margin of 15.2%.
The next federal election, which is due by May 2025, has not yet been declared, but Watson is already shaping up as a defining contest.
Basyouny says he has sensed excitement since his candidacy was announced. “The minute people realised there is another option and that their voices could be genuinely heard, there was always a sense of relief,” he says.
Labor and Burke are “pathologically unambitious”, says Basyouny, who wants to show locals who have traditionally voted Labor that there is another way.
“There has been a growing anger here at being ignored. And I tell people, I am going to be eating the government’s heart about a lack of spending here, about a lack of investment in Watson.”
He adds: “There is a quiet revolution happening.”
Burke and the Labor party are taking the independent challenge seriously. Labor remains confident the minister can withstand it, but party sources acknowledge there is “a narrow path” to victory for a challenger seeking to harness unhappiness in Watson over the government’s handling of the Gaza issue.
They calculate that despite the negative sentiment, Burke’s longtime incumbency will be a significant advantage over Basyouny, who must now introduce himself to the electorate and has only months to do it.
Burke has also secured public support from some higher profile western Sydney Muslim leaders and Labor hopes this will help too.
More than 70% of the electorate’s constituents told the last census that both their parents were born overseas. There are more people with Lebanese and Chinese ancestry than people who identified as having Australian ancestry, and just over a quarter of residents identify as Muslim.
‘Tony has never let us down’
Dr Jamal Rifi has been advocating for the local community from his medical practice in Belmore for more than 20 years. He calls Burke a friend of the community and says the community shouldn’t “stab its friends in the back”.
“He is a humanitarian, he is sincere, and he is very loved in this community. And Tony Burke is a powerful ally. He isn’t some backbencher or some independent who can’t change anything.”
Rifi has already assembled Friends of Tony Burke, an ad-hoc group that will campaign on behalf of the MP. Rifi says he has printed more than 300 T-shirts and intends to build an “army”.
“The friends of Burke army,” he says. “We will go to people’s houses, we will door knock and talk to people.
“It’s a crucial time. And Tony has never let us down, so we won’t let him down.”
The Lebanese Muslim Association, an influential organisation that manages the Lakemba Mosque, has a long history of political engagement but has declared they want to remain neutral at the next federal election.
Gemal Khier, the association’s secretary, says the organisation will hold forums with the candidates, but it is not “our place to tell people how to vote”.
“We believe it is our time to educate the community about being politically smart. We don’t want to tell people who to vote for, it’s not our role.”
But Khier says the war in Gaza has mobilised people, especially the local Arab and Muslim communities, like never before.
“This community has realised – and sadly it took Gaza for it to happen – that the only change that can happen is when we have a real political voice. And I’m not advocating for either Labor or Liberal or even independent. What I’m advocating for is our community,” he says.
“Gaza is a prime concern that we have. Yes, there are other concerns locally, but we are living and the people of Gaza are not. And we want to give people space to advocate for Gaza at the next election.”
Councillor Barbara Corey has been in politics for more than 30 years and is the only independent on the local Canterbury-Bankstown council. She says the area is ready for change.
“There is an element of unrest here, despite the fact that Burke has been a pretty good member of parliament,” she says. “I think people want to see their representatives stand up for their constituency.”
Prof Andy Marks, the executive director at the Centre for Western Sydney, says it will take a very “hyper-local” approach to destabilise Burke.
“An independent candidate that’s able to drill down on those big issues like housing and cost of living, but at a very localised level may have appeal. Candidates that do that at the federal level and do it really effectively are having increasing success.
“That is the secret sauce for an independent, where they are able to find those strong points of difference away from a national agenda.”
But he says ultimately a victory would be very surprising for an independent like Basyouny.
“On paper, he doesn’t look like a chance. He will destabilise the vote and make it difficult to predict, but it’s very hard to see Tony Burke losing that electorate.
“But if Dr Basyouny differentiates himself enough from the major parties, if he broadens his support base beyond the Muslim community, and if he maintains focus on a very localised view, it will certainly be very competitive.”
On the streets of Watson, views are mixed about whether Burke’s time is up.
“I don’t really think he represents us or has done a good job,” says Margaritta Toumaras, who runs the popular manoush spot Belmore Lebanese Bakery.
“Nothing gets fixed. You can’t even get parking here.
“People are struggling here, especially with the cost of living. They don’t support families and could be doing much more.”
But across the road at a barber adorned with basketball memorabilia, owner Adam Torcaso feels Burke’s longevity makes him more viable than any independent.
“He’s just been there for such a long time, and that’s a pretty good sign right?” he says. “Otherwise, he would have gone a long time ago.
“I think he is pretty fair and he brings people together here. If things are running smoothly, why change?”
Additional reporting by Karen Middleton