With Kamala Harris now poised to take on Donald Trump in the 5 November US presidential election, her fellow Democrats are enjoying a resurgence of optimism that was sorely lacking for much of this year, as Joe Biden struggled through a bumpy re-election campaign that he ultimately abandoned.
Since the president’s stumbling performance in his late June debate against Trump and his shock decision to withdraw from the race weeks later, Harris has rapidly ascended to become the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Polls have shown her drawing even with, and sometimes overtaking, Trump in the support of voters nationally, and in the handful of crucial swing states that will determine the election.
The vice-president has pressed her attack by holding energetic rallies across the country, most recently with Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor who Harris this week selected as her running mate. Democratic strategists and activists say Harris has given the party a much-needed reset after months of jitters over whether Biden’s struggling candidacy was setting the party up for a historic wipeout.
“Among the base, the enthusiasm is off the charts, probably the most excited I’ve seen people since the Obama campaign,” said Ben Tribbett, a Democratic strategist in Virginia. “And I think a lot of that has to do with a sense of relief. I think people really felt like we were in a situation that was unfixable and untenable.”
Biden resoundingly defeated Trump in the 2020 election, but in the years that followed, the former president strengthened his grip on the Republican party, while his Democratic successor struggled to maintain the support of voters as the US economy weathered its worst bout of inflation since the 1980s, and voters grew skeptical of the 81-year-old’s ability to do the job.
Trump swept the Republican primaries at the start of the year, while Biden embarked on a re-election campaign with arguments that Trump was unfit to serve, and posed a threat to democracy and reproductive freedom.
But despite the former president’s conviction in May on felony business fraud charges and three pending criminal cases against him, polls showed that Biden never gained a clear advantage over Trump, particularly in the six states – Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia – expected to decide the election.
Worse still for Democrats was the possibility that Biden’s presence on ballots nationwide would harm the party’s chances of regaining the majority in the House of Representatives, and keeping control of the Senate, particularly after he struggled to articulate his points and parry Trump’s attacks in their debate.
That nervousness has, at least for now, been alleviated by Biden’s decision to bow out and endorse Harris, a former California senator who made an unsuccessful bid for the party’s nomination in 2020, and who would be the first Black female president, as well as the first of south Asian descent, if elected.
“It’s kind of like just a big sigh of relief,” said Iva King, who co-leads a group of the progressive Indivisible movement in Athens, Georgia. “A lot of us really appreciated President Biden. I think he has done a great job. But like many people around the country, after we saw the debate, it was like, oh, this isn’t looking good.”
Public opinion surveys taken since Harris launched her campaign have shown the vice-president with a level of support that the Biden campaign did not have.
A slew of recent national polls show her with the lead over Trump nationally, though in swing states they have been less conclusive about which candidate is ahead. Nonetheless, two major forecasters, Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, this week announced new ratings that moved swing states where they previously believed Tump had a narrow lead back into their toss-up category.
While noting that Trump has stronger poll numbers than he did at this point four years ago, Cook Political Report’s editor-in-chief, Amy Walter, said: “For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities. In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest.”
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The former US president has begun characterizing Harris as too liberal, and seized on stances against fracking she took in her 2020 campaign and her role, under Biden, in attempting to stem the flow of migrants crossing into the US from Mexico. Trump’s running mate, the Ohio senator JD Vance, questioned Walz’s military service after his selection this week.
Dan Moore, a member of Wisconsin’s Grassroots Menomonee Falls Area, which is affiliated with Indivisible, credited Harris with energizing Democratic faithful and shifting the age conversation from Biden to Trump, who is 78. But he warned of the potency of attacking the vice-president as a “California liberal”.
“I think that has the ability to get some traction, and it’s just something that I hear from people” who say, “she’s way too liberal for me”, Moore said.
Some of Trump and Vance’s arguments have backfired. Trump drew condemnation for questioning Harris’s identity as African American, while Vance is on the defensive after comments of him dismissing Democrats as “a bunch of childless cat ladies” resurfaced. On Wednesday, the prominent Republican strategist Karl Rove issued a public warning in the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal, which are closely read by conservatives.
“The Trump-Vance ticket needs to become much more disciplined and settle soon on an effective line of attack against Harris-Walz that wins over swing voters and then stick to it. If it can’t achieve both these goals, a race Mr Trump was on the verge of winning three weeks ago could be lost,” Rove wrote.
Plenty can change in the less than three months remaining before election day, and Republicans have further avenues of attack, including lingering discontent over inflation, Tribbett said.
But Harris will have more opportunities to reintroduce herself to the public, including her 10 September debate against Trump. More pivotally will be her address at the Democratic national convention in Chicago later this month, where she will have the chance to further enliven a Democratic base that has already been fired up by her candidacy.
“I think if she does it right, I think she will emerge from the convention with a bounce,” he said. “If she’s fully engaged the Democratic base, that bounce will put her in the lead everywhere.”