Former President Donald Trump has the edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in a close race for the White House, according to a pair of polls published Thursday.
Harris has a more challenging road to the White House than Trump when considering the polls–one from Emerson College/Nexstar Media and another from Fabrizio Ward & Associates– and deeper themes stirring both nationally and in the individual states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For instance, one essential theme to consider is Trump regularly outperforms the polls:
In the post-Democratic National Convention (DNC) August 25-28 Emerson College poll, Trump has a 50 percent to 47 percent lead over Harris in Arizona, with another two percent of respondents undecided. Emerson sampled 720 likely voters in the state, and the credibility interval is ± 3.6 percentage points.
Georgia shows a neck-and-neck race, with Harris having a one-point edge. She takes 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided. However, momentum on the ground in Georgia appears to be in Trump’s favor, especially as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), who is extremely popular with his constituents, is putting his “political machine” behind the 45th president:
The sample included 800 likely voters, and the credibility interval is ±3.4 percent.
In Michigan, Harris lands at 50 percent, while Trump is 47 percent, with three percent undecided in the Emerson poll. However, the results are in direct contrast with the Fabrizio Ward poll published by the Pinpoint Policy Institute.
The poll, taken August 19-21 during the DNC, found that Trump led Harris 48 percent to 46 percent in the Wolverine State, with six percent of voters undecided.
Notably, Michigan was where the anti-Biden and Harris uncommitted movement began. More than 100,000 voters protested their policies of the Israel-Hamas war in the Democrat primary with protest votes, with a clear threat they would stay home in November, barring significant change that has not materialized:
Emerson College sampled 800 likely Michigan voters with a ± 3.4 percent credibility interval. Meanwhile, the Fabrizio Ward poll sampled 400 voters in Michigan, and the margin of error is ± 4.9 percent. The sample sizes, dates, and margin of error are the same for the other states included in that poll, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Emerson College’s results out of Nevada show an awfully tight race. Harris has a razor-thin edge of 49 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent. Another 3 percent of the 1,168 likely voters are undecided. The credibility interval is ±2.8 percent.
North Carolina shows another neck-and-neck race, but Trump has the edge, according to Emerson College. The poll of 775 likely voters found that Trump leads 49 percent to 48 percent. It has a ±3.5 percent credibility interval.
Perhaps the most consequential state of the lot, Pennsylvania, is a dead-heat race, with Harris and Trump locked at 48 percent apiece, and three percent of respondents are up for grabs. While the Fabrizio Ward poll also demonstrates a very close race, it has Trump up one point over Harris at 47 percent to 46 percent. Another seven percent of respondents are undecided.
Emerson College sampled 950 likely voters in the Keystone State, and the credibility interval is ± 3.1 percentage points.
Like Michigan, the results from Fabrizio Ward’s Wisconsin poll and the Emerson poll are in contrast with one another.
Emerson College found Trump narrowly leading Harris 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided in its survey of 850 voters. The margin of error is ± 3.3 percentage points. On the other hand, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 45 percent in the Fabrizio Ward poll.
If Trump does have the edge in Wisconsin, as the Emerson College poll indicates, this bodes trouble for Harris, as it is a more arduous task for her to bring that state home than it is for Trump to overcome the slim Georgia deficit.
As mentioned, Kemp, who won Georgia by 7.5 percent in the 2022 midterms, will heavily back Trump in the Peach State. In contrast, Harris still faces a potential mutiny from voters in the uncommitted movement in Wisconsin.
In the primary, 48,812 Arab Americans, Muslims, young voters, and far-left progressives voted “uninstructed,” the state’s version of uncommitted, to protest the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas. This more than doubled the 20,682 vote margin Biden won the Badger State by in 2020.
At the start of the DNC last week, a national pro-Palestinian group that was formerly called “Abandon Biden” announced it is committed to ensuring Harris loses the election:
Looking at the broader picture painted by just the Emerson College poll at face value, it would translate to an extremely close race in the electoral college with Harris at 263 and Trump at 256 and everything coming down to Pennsylvania–where they are tied–and its 19 electoral votes.
However, as longtime Democrat strategist James Carville, who helped former President Bill Clinton win the White House in 1992, emphasized to Bill Maher, close polls versus Trump do not bode well for Democrats:
“The idea is to be good in November, and I tell Democrats, some caution here. First of all, most say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College,” the Ragin’ Cajun said. “So when you see a poll that says we two up, well, actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct.”
The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically underpolls,” he added. “So they came back late in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020, and it showed Biden winning these states 7-8 points.”
Of course, the margins in all three of those states were much closer in 2020. Wisconsin was decided by less than one percent, Michigan went to Biden by just under three percent, and Trump came up just 1.2 percent short in Pennsylvania.
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