Senior Tories are already predicting that whoever wins the Conservative leadership race is unlikely to survive until the next election, amid criticisms of a “B-list” contest that risks taking the party farther to the right.
Some veteran figures have decided to give this weekend’s conference in Birmingham a miss, fearing the party has learned little from the complete loss of discipline that characterised its final years in government.
With former prime minister Liz Truss lined up to give a speech to the party masses and Boris Johnson publishing his memoirs, including claims of an abortedidea of invading the Netherlands to seize Covid vaccines, they say the event looks on course to confirm their misgivings.
However, apart from the outbursts from former Tory leaders, there are rumblings that none of the four candidates to be the party’s next figurehead – Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly – have the obvious qualities to unite the party’s factions and make a swift return to power.
“It’s like one of those celebrity reality TV shows where you don’t actually recognise any of the celebrities,” said one recently departed Tory minister. “It feels like a B-list selection. We are probably going to make a stupid decision. We will have to get this out of our system in order to make the right decision next time.”
The depression that has descended on some senior Tories comes before a conference dominated by the leadership race. The four hopefuls will make onstage Q&A appearances before their all-important speeches, designed to win over colleagues and convince Tory members that they are the right candidate to lead the party to recovery.
The four will be whittled down to two candidates via a ballot of Tory MPs after the conference, before members make the final selection.
It is hoped the format of the race would allow the four to be properly tested and avoid the disaster of Truss’s prime ministership or the communication struggles of Theresa May, who was ultimately crowned leader unopposed.
Yet the run-up to the conference has been dominated by scratchy battles over speech lengths and timings, as well as disputed claims of preferential treatment – some insiders accuse Conservative HQ of favouring Badenoch.
But one former cabinet minister said that several figures in the party were having doubts about how long the next incumbent would even be in the role, because none seem capable of holding together a party that has been pulling apart for years.
They said: “I’ve heard this from a few people, thinking: ‘Why are we getting excited about this? Because it will happen again between now and the general election.’ We’re not talking about the next Conservative prime minister yet. We don’t know what we are at the moment.
“Tugendhat’s too left for the right, Kemi’s too right for the left. Jenrick is just unexciting and attempting to be something that he isn’t, which leaves Cleverly.”
Others, however, describe Cleverly as too close to Rishi Sunak’s regime to represent a fresh start. Many expect tensions to bubble up in some of the conference outings. One senior figure said he was worried about Badenoch’s ability to “start a fight in an empty room”.
The continuing doubts over the party’s future direction are borne out by the latest Opinium polling for the Observer, which shows that voters no longer know what the Conservative party stands for, and believe it is disunited and lacking a clear sense of purpose.
Over the last three years, the Conservatives have dropped 25 points in terms of whether voters know what the party stands for. The party has dropped 18 points in terms of having a clear sense of purpose and 22 points on perceived unity.
Although the Tories are very much seen as being out of touch, they scored relatively badly on this measure even when they were doing well in the polls back in 2021.
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While the candidates are relatively unknown to the wider public, there are also worrying signs that those who voted Tory in its 2019 election win are not enamoured of the options on offer either.
Among that group, Badenoch is the most unacceptable option, with 27% unhappy about the prospect of her were to be elected. The others are not far behind, with 24% saying Cleverly would be unacceptable as leader, 20% saying the same about Tugendhat and 17% about Jenrick.
One senior Tory source also questioned Jenrick’s record, suggesting it was “extraordinary” that he had faced so little scrutiny for his role in the controversial approval of a Tory donor’s housing development in 2020. They feared the saga would gain fresh attention should Jenrick become leader. Then the housing secretary, Jenrick intervened to approve Richard Desmond’s £1bn property scheme in east London. The pair had recently sat next to each other at a Tory fundraising dinner.
Others also criticised him for retaining links to aides who had been involved in the so-called “grid of shit” plot to destabilise Sunak during his prime ministership – something Jenrick’s team has firmly denied.
Such are the doubts about whether the party is ready to unite that some are already discussing the return of Johnson in a couple of years’ time, should the next leader be struggling to make an impression on the Labourgovernment.
“He will time his run quite carefully, once he’s got £10m in the bank,” said one of his former cabinet team. “He won’t want to be leader of the opposition – he’ll want to be prime minister.”
Justine Greening, the former Tory cabinet minister, said there was little sign the party had come to terms with its huge election loss.
“The impression given to voters is of a party in denial. Conservative leadership candidates have so far attempted to ‘style it out’, behaving as if the party just lost by a few seats, rather than the near two-thirds cull of MPs that took place,” she writes in the Observer today.
“The party has to jolt itself back into the real world. With Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats now in parliament in force, politically waiting to eat them up, this chance won’t last for ever.”