Emmanuel Macron will press ahead with a Paris summit of European defence powers to try to retake the initiative and demand the US ends its lockout of Europe from talks on Ukraine’s future.
With the US and Russia due to send high-powered delegations for talks in Riyadh this week – the first such meetings in two years – there are fears in Europe that Russia will relaunch its plan for imposed Ukrainian neutrality and a joint US-Russia carve-up with agreed spheres of influence.
Ukraine and many of its closest European allies believe Vladimir Putin wants to make a recasting of the postwar order his precondition for a ceasefire.
The Paris meeting will also discuss what defence capabilities Europe could provide to give Ukraine credible security guarantees, including a plan for Ukraine to be given automatic Nato membership in the event of a clear ceasefire breach by Russia.
It will be held under the “Weimar+” format, which includes France, Germany and Poland, plus the UK, Italy, Spain and Denmark.
An offer of Nato membership conditional on a Russian ceasefire breach, probably requiring the US to remain a backstop guarantor for Ukraine, has been promoted by some US senators and now has the backing of senior European leaders, including Alexander Stubb, the Finnish president.
Stubb led the warnings about Russia’s ambitions, saying there was no way the door should be opened for a Russian fantasy about spheres of influence. In any talks Ukraine had to be guaranteed “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”, he said.
Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy on Ukraine, has briefed European leaders in Munich on the US negotiating strategy, which the Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, described as unorthodox.
The US will be represented in Riyadh by the secretary of state, Marco Rubio; the national security adviser, Mike Waltz; and the special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.
In a call on Saturday setting up the talks with the US, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, agreed the aim was to restore “mutually respectful interstate dialogue” in line with the tone set by the presidents.
The aim was also to remove “the unilateral barriers to mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment cooperation inherited from the previous administration”. The US has been pressing for the lifting of some sanctions as a goodwill gesture.
Macron has said he is not shocked or surprised by the speed with which Trump is acting to drive a ceasefire bargain, but officials fear Russia is seeking not only Ukraine’s neutrality through capping the size of its army and the ousting of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but also a spheres of influence agreement akin to the Yalta agreement signed over the heads of many nations in 1945 by the US, Britain and the Soviet Union.
That would put some western countries within “a sphere of coercion in which nations lives in fear”, one official said.
Ukraine has not been invited to the talks in Riyadh, but Kellogg has insisted Kyiv will be involved with the US acting as mediator, and Europe consulted. He claimed previous Ukraine peace deals foundered due to the large negotiating table.
Kellogg suggested tougher sanctions including on the Russian shadow fleet could be imposed if Russia rejected a durable settlement that protected Ukrainian sovereignty. He said a breach of the settlement terms would require serious agreed consequences.
The Paris summit, due to be attended by Keir Starmer, will also need to respond to a request by the US to spell out whether leaders are prepared to commit troops to a stabilisation force in the event of a ceasefire.
European leaders are divided in their response to Trump’s initiatives, with some predicting the opening of a fundamental rupture between Washington and Europe, and others arguing that if Europe can fulfil the US demand to improve its security offer then the transatlantic relationship can be repaired and Europe will find a place at the table on the future of Ukraine.
The new EU foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, convened an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Munich on Sunday morning and said initiatives would be announced soon. The EU has announced plans to relax EU fiscal debt rules to allow for more defence spending, and Kallas has already warned against premature concessions to Russia on issues such as Ukraine’s Nato membership.
The phrasing of a call to arms issued to Europe by Zelenskyy in Munich on Saturday was regarded as unhelpful because he couched it in terms of a unified European army, anathema to many voters, but Macron has long argued that a distinctive European force is required. He was also the first nearly a year ago to suggest European forces enter Ukraine on an initial training mission.
Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, said: “If the US wants us to step up in defence, it should have a national component, a Nato component, but I also believe a European EU component, EU subsidies for the defence industry to build up our capacity to produce, but also an EU force worthy of its name.”
He reiterated that having Polish troops on the ground in Ukraine was “not a consideration, because Poland’s duty to Nato is to protect the eastern flank, ie its own territory.”
The UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, said: “Our assessment is that Putin has shown no desire to negotiate save for Ukraine to capitulate, which is nothing that we can tolerate and nor can our American friends.”
Lammy said an enduring peace plan was needed, adding that previous truces such as Minsk agreements did not work because Russia breached the terms set out by the OSCE 20 times. “Something has got to be in place this time that works and that is why we think an irreversible pathway to Nato is important to keep on the table,” he said.
Zelenskyy has been adamant. “Ukraine will never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement. And the same rule should apply to all of Europe,” the Ukrainian president said.
“No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine. No decisions about Europe without Europe. Europe must have a seat at the table when decisions about Europe are being made. Anything else is zero. If we’re left out of negotiations about our own future then we all lose.”
In a development that is worrying Ukraine, the US is applying pressure on it to hold elections this year. Kellogg said: “Most democratic countries hold elections in their wartime. I think it’s important that they do so. That’s the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person who could run.”