As many as 50 Labour MPs could refuse to back the government’s controversial plan to cut the winter fuel allowance, despite Keir Starmer urging back benchers to get behind a measure he has conceded is “unpopular”.
While few on the government benches are expected to vote against the policy in Tuesday’s vote, dozens are believed to be considering abstaining or being absent – though rebels say the numbers in their ranks are very hard to predict.
After seven Labour MPs had the whip suspended in July for voting for an SNP amendment on the two-child benefit cap, the assumption is that a similar rebellion on Tuesday would bring the same consequences..
One Labour MP said: “I’d expect the vast majority of anyone who does rebel to abstain, and remain inside the tent. Abstention is the new rebellion. It’s a question of defining what dissent is, and it’s probably better to do this than to jump off a cliff.”
Although there is no chance of the vote being lost, a significant number of absences would indicate the extent of disquiet over a policy that many rebels fear could lose the party votes, and which one MP described as “a shitshow”.
Neither Starmer nor No 10 would comment on the potential punishment for rebels before the vote, which was triggered by the Conservatives formally opposing the plan to strip the payment from all but the poorest pensioners.
But in his first substantial TV interview since becoming prime minister, Starmer made it plain that he was unlikely to tolerate open dissent. When asked if he would apply the same police of removing the whip from rebels, Starmer told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg: “That will be a matter for the chief whip.
“We’re going into a vote. I’m glad we’re having a vote, because I think it’s very important for parliament to speak on this. But every Labour MP was elected in on the same mandate as I was, which was to deliver the change that we need for the country.”
A number of Labour MPs, however, argue that the winter fuel decision is different, because of worries about the consequences for many older people and because it was not in the party’s manifesto.
Starmer reiterated the argument that the near-£1.5bn annual cost of no longer paying the allowance to all pensioners regardless of income was a vital element in plugging what the government says is a £22bn fiscal hole discovered after they took office.
He contrasted the decision with what he said was a Conservative government that had “run away from difficult decisions”.
“I’m absolutely convinced that we will only deliver that change – I’m absolutely determined we will – if we do the difficult things now,” he said. “I know they’re unpopular, I know they’re difficult. Of course, they’re tough choices. Tough decisions are tough decisions. Popular decisions aren’t tough, they’re easy.
“I do recognise how difficult it is for some people. I do recognise it’s really hard for some pensioners. But of course, they do rely on the NHS, they do rely on public transport. So these things aren’t completely divorced.”
He also argued that with the triple-lock policy of pension increases, he could guarantee that the annual increase in the state pension “will outstrip any reduction in the winter fuel payment”.
Twelve Labour MPs have signed a Commons early day motion, a way to indicate opinion, expressing alarm at the plan, as have five of the backbenchers who had the whip suspended in July.
One of the latter group, John McDonnell, said on Sunday that he would rebel again unless ministers set out “a way of managing this that isn’t going to impact upon people in my constituency who are facing hardship”.
He told LBC radio: “But if that doesn’t happen by Tuesday, I will vote against. I can’t do anything else.”
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With cabinet ministers known to be among those worried about the consequences of the policy, one backbencher said the implementation had been bungled.
“There was no equality impact assessment, no consultation with charities. And it was announced just before the summer recess. It’s hard to say how many people will abstain – a lot of the new MPs are quite scared of the whips – but everyone is being inundated with emails and letters about this,” they said.
There has been speculation that ministers could ease worries by announcing some sort of extra support. But No 10 officials say there is nothing planned beyond the existing extension of the household support fund, which allows councils to hand out some small grants, and encouraging eligible older people to apply for pension credit, which would entitle them to the winter fuel payment.
One MP said this would make little difference, saying the household support fund has only a marginal impact, while only about two-thirds of those who could claim pension credit did so, a proportion that seemed unlikely to notably shift.
“A lot of people won’t claim pension credit however much you advertise it,” they said. “The form you have to fill in is 24 pages long and has more than 200 questions. The whole way ministers have dealt with this is a shitshow.”
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has the tricky job of addressing MPs at a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party on Monday evening to push home the message about the need for fiscal sacrifices to encourage longer-term growth.
It remains to be seen if she will face any open dissent, with many backbenchers, especially those newly elected in July, known to be nervous about the possible repercussions of being seen as rebellious.
One backbencher who opposes the policy said, however, that they believed even Labour whips were often privately sympathetic.
“They’re getting the same volume of emails and letters that everyone is, or being stopped in the street by people who said they voted Labour and they now feel betrayed. It all feels politically illiterate, and the risk is it will push a lot of people away from us.”