Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded in an interview on Tuesday that Ukraine does not have “enough forces” to restore sovereignty over Russian-occupied Crimea and “must seek diplomatic means” to end the Russian invasion and regain its land.
The state-run Ukrinform outlet reported that Zelensky described Crimea – which Russia colonized in 2014, long before Zelensky himself entered politics – as “strategic in principle for the world” and suggested that Russia occupying it is a threat to global food supply and other critical economic sectors. His call for diplomacy follows several similar remarks out of Ukrainian officials following the election of Donald Trump to a second term as president in the United States in November, indicating an openness to dialogue that was largely absent for most of the term of President Joe Biden.
Adding to the perception of inclination towards more diplomacy, Zelensky’s former foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said in a series of interviews last week that he does not believe Ukraine is in a good position to win the war against Russia and “things look bad on the battlefield.” Kuleba, who resigned in bizarre fashion from his longstanding position as Ukraine’s top diplomat in September, also suggested that Zelensky is limited on how many issues he can compromise on by the popular will of the Ukrainian people, who would end his political career if he offers too many concessions.
Polls indicate that attitudes in Ukraine are changing from majority support for warring to victory. A Gallup poll published in late November found that slightly more than half of Ukrainians want the war to end as quickly as possible; in 2022, 73 percent of Ukrainians said they would prefer to fight until victory.
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“We do not have enough forces to return Crimea,” Zelensky told Kyodo on Tuesday. “Our army does not have enough forces. We must seek diplomatic means, but [this will be possible] only after we know that we are so strong that the Russians will not return with aggression again.”
The Ukrainian president has emphasized that he believes America and Europe must offer key security guarantees to prevent a future Russian invasion before genuine diplomacy with Moscow can begin. He suggested that returning Crimea to Ukraine was necessary not just for Ukraine, but the world, because “whoever controls Crimea controls security in the Black Sea.”
“Everyone understands this. All food security corridors. […] Here is an example: when Putin occupied Crimea, he blocked the Black Sea. Agricultural products from Ukraine did not reach Africa, Asia, or European countries,” he added.
Ukraine was a nuclear power in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. It gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the West as part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, intended to prevent situations such as the current Russian invasion of the country. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry marked the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum on Tuesday by demanding the West respect the guarantees it provided.
“This mistake must be corrected. Ukraine must be provided with clear, legally binding security guarantees that align with its significant contribution to global nuclear disarmament and the maintenance of international peace and security,” the Foreign Ministry proclaimed. “We call on the United States and the United Kingdom, signatories to the Budapest Memorandum, France and China, which have acceded to it, and all states-parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, to support the provision of effective security guarantees to Ukraine.”
Regarding current diplomatic discussions, the Foreign Ministry added that Ukraine “will not accept any alternatives, surrogates or substitutes for Ukraine’s full membership in NATO.”
Zelensky’s remarks follow two interviews published last week, by the Financial Times and Politico, with former top diplomat Kuleba in which he suggested military victory was not currently likely for his country.
“Do we today have the means and tools to turn the tables and change the trajectory of how things are happening? No, we don’t. And if it continues like this, we will lose the war,” he told the Financial Times.
Kuleba added, however, that the situation has looked direr for Ukraine in the past.
“It’s true that things look bad on the battlefield. But things looked even worse in the first months of 2022,” he continued. “What I hate in my conversations with European and American experts — and ‘hate’ is a word I usually don’t use — is that everyone is asking what Ukraine is ready to do, what Ukraine is ready to accept. And I say, guys, first find the answer to the question [of] what Putin is ready to accept. Because this is the place where the war comes from.”
Kuleba focused on America and Europe, he noted, because countries in Africa and other regions were less cooperative with Ukraine. In Africa, he shared, heads of government “literally were afraid that Russia will stage a coup or kill them if they openly support us.”
“And then there was always another elephant in the room — China. Because Africa is Chinese territory with very few exceptions,” he added.
To Politico, Kuleba shared his belief that he did not think Russian strongman Vladimir Putin was interested in diplomacy.
“Putin still believes he can snuff out Ukrainian statehood and crush Ukraine as an independent democracy, and he thinks he’s one step away from exposing the West as weak,” he said.
Kuleba also suggested that Zelensky could only concede so much without surrendering his political career.
“The Russians keep the Donbas, they keep Crimea, no NATO membership. Can Zelenskyy sign? He cannot because of the Constitution. And because it will be the end of Zelenskyy politically,” Kuleba asserted.
In remarks last week, Zelensky indicated the “hot war” between his country an Russia could end, as the Foreign Ministry implied, with Ukraine joining a “NATO umbrella.”
“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” he told Sky News. “We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”